SABATO PREDICTS – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  Political pundit Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia makes his predictions for the Senate.  From centerforpolitics.org: 

Our projection remains a five-to-eight seat Republican gain in the Senate, and with less than three weeks to go we would much rather be holding the cards Republicans have been dealt versus the ones dealt to the Democrats as both sides play for a Senate majority. Despite the likelihood of two runoffs, it’s not impossible to imagine the GOP having a good enough night that they get to 51 seats without Georgia or Louisiana: That would mean holding all of their present seats (minus Georgia, at least on Election Day) and capturing (in order of least to most GOP difficulty) Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Arkansas, Alaska, Iowa, and Colorado. That would represent a great night for the GOP, and they have at least a decent chance in all seven races (North Carolina could be the eighth).

That said, a month ago the Republican position looked much stronger in Georgia and Kansas (states they already hold), as well as South Dakota (a seat that until recently looked like an easy pick-up). Republicans could and probably should win all three, even if it takes them until January to do so in the Peach State. But 2014 has been a crazy enough election that one of these seats could possibly slip through the GOP’s fingers.

COMMENT:  Once again the Republican problem, if there is one, is losing in states where they should easily win.  Who would have thought Kansas and South Dakota would go wobbly?  And there are states where Republicans only lead by a point or two, like Iowa. 

This will probably be close.  The Senate could go either way.  If the Democrats do retain control, they'd have to hold all or almost all of their senators to get major legislation passed or Supreme Court nominees confirmed.  That may be difficult or impossible, as senators would no longer owe anything to lame-duck President Barack Obama.

October 17,  2014